I sometimes cringe when the circumstantial evidence instruction is given about waking up and the grass is wet. In some neighborhoods, all that means is that people’s lawn sprinklers have been on during the night or early morning, not that it rained in the night. Sometimes I make that point to be careful about the concept. But, here is a much more scholarly and pithy discussion of circumstantial evidence and instructions.
Eugenee M. Heeter, Chance of Rain: Rethinking Circumstantial Evidence Jury Instructions, 64 HASTINGS L. J. 527 (2013).