Chances on appeal?

Not good?  Is that the bottom line coming out of appellate results proffered by CAAFLog, Appellate Relief Data (8 February 2009)?

CAAFLog's own "research" of Air Force opinions yields an approximate 4.7% chance of getting relief, and an undetermined chance of meaningful relief within that number of cases.

CAAFLog also points to Major Jeffrey D. Lippert, Automatic Appeal Under UCMJ Article 66: Time for a Change, 182 MIL. L. REV. 1, 17 (2004). 
In his article, Major Lippert concludes there's about a 3% chance of relief from courts across the board.

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